Insights

With major central banks crossing the finish line on aggressive tightening cycles, Ostrum Asset Management (Ostrum AM) expects 2024 to be rich in investment opportunities but signals there are still multiple risks to be managed. Amongst the usual suspects are credit, duration and volatility, but there are also others to consider such as the configuration of yield curves and the growing risks related to the climate transition.

After a favourable year for the financial markets in 2023 despite a troubled international context, 2024 should see a change of era, according to the experts at Ostrum AM, an affiliate of Natixis Investment Managers. Investors will have to adapt to a new market environment now in the hands of lenders, with interest rates permanently above 2%. 2024 should be a year rich in investment opportunities, served by active management of risks that are a priori contained but growing: duration risks, default risks for governments and companies alike, and volatility risks, not to mention the growing risks associated with climate change.

Each month we share the conclusions from the monthly strategy investment committee which provides a summary of Ostrum’s views on the economy, strategy and markets. 

Every month, find out all about the sustainable market bonds news in our newsletter « MySustainableCorner ».

Dieudonné Djimi, Global Interest Rates & Currency Portfolio Manager at Ostrum Asset Management, discusses Outlook for sovereign bond markets in 2024 . As mentioned in Ostrum 2024 global outlooks, the fixed income market will have to deal with an unprecedented rise in net bond issuance, as the central banks aim to ease their rates. This situation should lead towards a record year for sovereign issuance. In this environment, how can we ensure that market makers are able to fulfil their role as principal liquidity providers to the bond markets? How can trading protocols and enhanced connectivity create new sources of liquidity? What is the role of transparency in underpinning market resilience? How do conditions in the repo and derivatives markets impact underlying bond markets?

At a time when the issue of preserving forests to combat global warming is central to the COP28 debates, President Lula marks a break with his predecessor and calls on world leaders to "take concrete action and respect climate agreements". In a country where agribusiness has destroyed almost 50% of the vegetation cover, one of the main challenges of the new presidential term is to increase the agricultural area without cutting down trees. The date has been set for the COP30 in Belem. At the same time, the country's commitment to fiscal and budgetary reform is expected to put public finances on a sounder footing as it embarks on a major structural macroeconomic turnaround. Everything is in place to attract international investors.

Illustration with Ostrum AM’s Climate and Social Impact Bond strategy

Coming on the heels of 2023, a year that turned out favourable for the financial markets despite a disruptive international environment, 2024 promises to usher in a new era, according to the experts at Ostrum Asset Management (Ostrum AM), an affiliate of Natixis Investment Managers. Investors will thus have to adapt to a new market configuration, one where the lenders have the power, with interest rates set to remain above 2% for a prolonged period. 2024 is shaping up to be a year filled with investment opportunities, served by active management of risks that should in principle be contained but are nevertheless on the rise: duration risks, credit risks and volatility risks, not to mention risks associated with climate change.

Like many institutionals, insurers are exposed to multiple risk components, but the main component is interest rate risk. Interest rate risk stems from liabilities and it is necessary to have exposure in order to hedge this same risk carried under balance sheet liabilities. Fixed income instruments are thus a significant portion of the balance sheet and make the main contribution towards earnings on liabilities. This is a key factor of financial output for the euro-denominated fund.

Nathalie Pistre is Head of Research & SRI at Ostrum, an affiliate of Natixis Investment Managers. She’s been with the Natixis group since 2002. She was responsible for Ostrum's quantitative research and coordinated the integration of ESG into Ostrum's management processes before taking over as head of research and SRI in 2020.

Each month we share the conclusions from the monthly strategy investment committee which provides a summary of Ostrum’s views on the economy, strategy and markets. 

Diversification and bond portfolio management often go hand in hand. There are two reasons for this: firstly, because the multitude and variety of asset classes underlying the bond market means there is a wide gap between the asset considered to be the safest in the world (Treasury notes) and the debt of financially fragile companies (high-yield bonds). Secondly, because at the “lower” level, i.e. within the indices, these asset classes contain hundreds of different securities.