News & insights

After more than three decades marked by the ‘great moderation’, markets are entering a new phase in which global economic balances are being redrawn. The deglobalisation of value chains, accelerated by the protectionist policies of the Trump administration, is redefining trade flows and investment decisions. At the same time, new structural drivers are emerging: the rise of artificial intelligence, whose economic impact now extends beyond the technology sector alone, and monetary innovation, which is redefining the scope of intervention for economic players, foremost among them central banks.The combination of these developments raises a key question for 2026: are we in a transition phase or is this the beginning of a genuine break with the current economic and financial regime?In this more fragmented and less predictable environment, Axel Botte, Head of Market Strategy, Alexandre Caminade, Head of Sovereign, Emerging Market and Aggregate Fixed Income, Philippe Berthelot, Head of Credit and Monetary Markets, and Frédéric Leguay, Head of Fundamental Equities, present Ostrum AM's outlook for the coming year: continued uneven global growth, selective normalisation of monetary policies, a credit market that remains buoyant, and an equity environment supported by a return to earnings growth.