Read our market review and find out all about our theme of the week in MyStratWeekly and its podcast with our experts Axel Botte, Aline Goupil-Raguénès and Zouhoure Bousbih.

Topic of the week: Trillions

  • It has been an eventful year for Treasury bond markets, given the debt ceiling issue until May and the subsequent sharp increase in public borrowing as the federal deficit rose to $1.7 trillion this past fiscal year;
  • The US fiscal outlook has been back in focus this year with a downgrade from Fitch last summer and considerable volatility in the wake of the Fed’s monetary tightening;
  • The US borrowing needs has so far not led to a weaker dollar but global competition for available savings could push yields higher in the coming months;
  • A dovish Fed and lower than expected increase in bond auctions sizes sparked the recent bond rally, but all eyes will be on the next refinancing announcement once an appropriation bill pass Congress, hopefully in the next few weeks.

Market review: Warning shot

  • Powell insists Fed will stay vigilant on inflation;
  • Poor auction of US 30-year bond;
  • T-note yields hover about 4.60 %;
  • US Tech powers ahead, extends rally.

Chart of the week

liquidity conditions in sovereign bond markets

According to Bloomberg estimates, liquidity in major sovereign debt markets has deteriorated over the past two years. The withdrawal of Central Banks with quantitative tightening and the volatility induced by interest rate increases have contributed to widening the rating ranges.

This liquidity index measures the average yield gap for each security with a residual maturity greater than 1 year compared to an interpolated curve. An increase in the index therefore reflects wider valuation gaps and less liquidity.

Figure of the week

8

$8 a pound of beef in the US, an all-time high due to the drought.

MyStratWeekly : Market views and strategy

Download MyStratWeekly – November 14th 2023

Listen to Axel Botte's and Aline Goupil-Raguénès' podcast (in French only)

  • Axel Botte

    Axel Botte

    Head of markets strategy

  • Zouhoure Bousbih

    Zouhoure Bousbih

    Emerging countries strategist

  • Aline Goupil-Raguénès

    Aline Goupil-Raguénès

    Developed countries strategist

Podcast
Reading time : 30 min.
NEWS MARKETS
Read our market review and find out all about our theme of the week in MyStratWeekly and its podcast with our experts Axel Botte, Aline Goupil-Raguénès and Zouhoure Bousbih.
06/11/2024
Reserved for pros
Reading time : 5 min.
INSIGHTS MARKETS
The ECB has started its rate cut cycle, but we do not expect rapid adjustments in the coming months. Yields should therefore remain attractive in the money market, which also offers low volatility and interest rate risk. Money market assets should therefore remain an important component of investors' asset allocation.To find out more about this interesting context, Fairouz Yahiaoui, Money market Portfolio Manager and Sanda Molotcov, Head of Credit Research at Ostrum AM share their views in this video.
06/07/2024
Reserved for pros
Podcast
Reading time : 30 min.
NEWS MARKETS
Read our market review and find out all about our theme of the week in MyStratWeekly and its podcast with our experts Axel Botte, Aline Goupil-Raguénès and Zouhoure Bousbih.
06/04/2024
Reserved for pros