MyStratWeekly – March 14th 2023

Topic of the week: SVB, quick take

• In the last two years there has been no bank failure in the US. In the last weeks there have been two bankruptcies;
• The reaction of the authorities, both regulator and central bank, has been very ambitious and should help avoiding a contamination effect throughout the sector;
• The market remains extremely doubtful.

Market review: The Fed caught between inflation and bank risks

• Powell changes his message on inflation;
• Fed: 50 bp hike possible at March FOMC…
• …despite a bank run on SVB in the US;
• Wild swings in bond yields, upward pressure on spreads.

Stéphane Déo's podcast

• What about today’s American inflation figures?

Chart of the week

After their dramatic rise last year, energy prices are falling. Even though we hear a lot about persistent inflation and rising prices, that is no longer the case for energy.

We thus arrive at this paradox, that the energy budget of European households allows them to increase their purchasing power. The fall in energy prices over the last three months represents the equivalent of a wage increase of 0.7%.

Unfortunately, the other components of inflation continue to rise and continue to weigh on consumption.