Read our market review and find out all about our theme of the week in MyStratWeekly and its podcast with our experts Axel Botte, Aline Goupil-Raguénès and Zouhoure Bousbih.
Listen to Axel Botte and Zouhoure Bousbih’s podcast (in French only)
Podcast slides (in French only)
Download the Podcast slides (in French only)Topic of the week: Emerging Markets: What to Except After the Resilience and Surprises of "Liberation Day"?
- Despite high political and economic uncertainty caused by tariffs and trade tensions, emerging markets have been resilient during the sell-off;
- The unexpected weakness of the dollar has been their main advantage, although overall resilience masks disparities between countries;
- The deterioration of global economic outlooks is likely to put highly indebted countries under pressure: the spread differential between "High Yield" and "Investment Grade" has widened;
- The significant uncertainty caused by tariffs risks keeping financial market volatility high, leading to a revaluation of risk premiums for emerging markets;
- A sustained drop in oil (and commodity) prices poses a risk to producers with high oil fiscal breakeven prices and significant financing needs.
Market review: It’s all tariff-on, tariff-off…
- Trump hints at a reduction in tariffs and suggests that Powell will serve out his term;
- Rates: Rhetorical easing allows the T-note yields to dip below 4.25%;
- Markets rebound following Trump's shift in policy;
- The Nasdaq surged 6.7% last week ahead of the earnings reports from major U.S. companies.
Axel Botte and Zouhoure Bousbih’s podcast:
- Review of the week – Trump backs down;
- Theme – Emerging Markets: What to Except After the Resilience and Surprises of "Liberation Day"?
Chart of the week
Donald Trump's approval rating, at 40% in April according to Gallup, is lower than that of previous American presidents since Ronald Reagan at this point in their terms.
The current occupant of the White House is performing worse than Bill Clinton did in 1993, as Clinton did not secure majority approval during his first 100 days in office.
Trump's policies are viewed negatively by most Americans, particularly his tariff policy and cost-cutting measures within the federal government. His transgressions of federal laws are also being criticized.
Figure of the week
3 521
The U.S administration is preparing to impose a 3521% tariff on solar panel imports from Southeast Asian countries such as Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam.
