Read our market review and find out all about our theme of the week in MyStratWeekly and its podcast with our experts Axel Botte, Aline Goupil-Raguénès and Zouhoure Bousbih.
Summary
Listen to Axel Botte’s podcast (in French only)
Podcast slides (in French only)
Download the Podcast slides (in French only)Topic of the week: The thematic piece will resume on May 19.
Market review: Glimmers of Hope Amid Trade Tensions
- De-escalation hopes key for risk asset markets;
- Fed holds steady at 4.50% on rates amid persistent pressure from Trump;
- Long-term rates resuming uptrend, particularly in Japan;
- Sovereign and credit spreads tightening, European equities slightly higher.
(Listen to) Axel Botte’s podcast:
- Review of the week – Apparent relaxation in spreads and rebound in long-term interest rates;
- Theme – Core elements of recent trade agreements.
Chart of the week
Implied volatility is a measure of the market expected future volatility of a currency exchange rate from now until the maturity date.
The outbreak of a conflict between Pakistan and India appears to have revived volatility in the USD-INR exchange rate after a prolonged period of subpar volatility. The 1-month implied volatility has reverted to 6 %, close to the 2020-2022 average.
Figure of the week
324
Global debt increased by $7.5 trillion in Q1 2025 reaching $324.3 trillion, a new record high, driven primarily by increased government borrowing in China, France, and Germany. However, debt grew less than global GDP, resulting in a decrease in the debt-to-GDP ratio to 325%, the lowest since late 2019.
