Read our market review and find out all about our theme of the week in MyStratWeekly and its podcast with our experts Axel Botte, Aline Goupil-Raguénès and Zouhoure Bousbih.

Listen to Axel Botte's podcast (in French only)

Topic of the week: Three risks to our 2024 scenario

  • US protectionism, and to some extent European protectionism, has weighed on global trade since Donald Trump's election in 2016. Today, China's export capacity poses an existential threat to emerging industries related to the energy transition, such as electric vehicles, in Europe and the United States. Escalating protectionist measures would likely have significant implications for international trade and goods inflation;
  • Recent wage negotiation data in the Eurozone raises concerns about the formation of a wage-price spiral that is incompatible with a sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target. Sustained additional inflation would challenge the ECB's ability to act, particularly with limited fiscal flexibility;
  • The healthcare and social assistance sector has been a major job creator in the United States over the past two years. A reform of the ACA or a reduction in Medicaid funding could have significant consequences for healthcare spending and the labor market in general.

Market review: Is the ECB taking an unnecessary risk?

  • ECB cuts rates by 25 bp whilst raising its inflation forecast for 2025;
  • FOMC meets this week after another solid job report;
  • T-note yields moving wildly between 4.30 % and 4.60 % over the past month;
  • Equities on a positive note whilst sovereign and credit spreads remain stable.

Axel Botte's podcast

  • Topic of the week: Market news and central banks;
  • Theme: Questions on the French spread.

Chart of the week

ecb-deposit-rate-economists-expectations

There is considerable uncertainty about the level of interest rates over the next two years. The survey of Bloomberg economists illustrates the distribution of ECB rate expectations collected before the ECB meeting on June 6th.

A large majority of economists are forecasting a cut in September, followed by one or two additional cuts in the fourth quarter. The deposit rate appears to be below 3% in all cases from the second quarter of 2025.

Figure of the week

The market capitalization of Nvidia surpassed that of Apple by over 3 trillion dollars this week. At current prices, Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft are worth more in the stock market than the entire Chinese market.

Source: Bloomberg

MyStratWeekly : Market views and strategy

Download MyStratWeekly – June 11th 2024
  • Axel Botte

    Axel Botte

    Head of markets strategy

  • Zouhoure Bousbih

    Zouhoure Bousbih

    Emerging countries strategist

  • Aline Goupil-Raguénès

    Aline Goupil-Raguénès

    Developed countries strategist

Reading time : 15 min.
INSIGHTS MARKETS
Each month we share the conclusions from the monthly strategy investment committee which provides a summary of Ostrum’s views on the economy, strategy and markets.
06/19/2024
Reserved for pros
Podcast
Reading time : 30 min.
NEWS MARKETS
Read our market review and find out all about our theme of the week in MyStratWeekly and its podcast with our experts Axel Botte, Aline Goupil-Raguénès and Zouhoure Bousbih.
06/18/2024
Reserved for pros
Reading time : 5 min.
INSIGHTS MARKETS
The ECB has started its rate cut cycle, but we do not expect rapid adjustments in the coming months. Yields should therefore remain attractive in the money market, which also offers low volatility and interest rate risk. Money market assets should therefore remain an important component of investors' asset allocation.To find out more about this interesting context, Fairouz Yahiaoui, Money market Portfolio Manager and Sanda Molotcov, Head of Credit Research at Ostrum AM share their views in this video.
06/07/2024
Reserved for pros