Insights

Each month we share the conclusions from the monthly strategy investment committee which provides a summary of Ostrum’s views on the economy, strategy and markets. 

Dieudonné Djimi, Global Interest Rates & Currency Portfolio Manager at Ostrum Asset Management, discusses Outlook for sovereign bond markets in 2024 . As mentioned in Ostrum 2024 global outlooks, the fixed income market will have to deal with an unprecedented rise in net bond issuance, as the central banks aim to ease their rates. This situation should lead towards a record year for sovereign issuance. In this environment, how can we ensure that market makers are able to fulfil their role as principal liquidity providers to the bond markets? How can trading protocols and enhanced connectivity create new sources of liquidity? What is the role of transparency in underpinning market resilience? How do conditions in the repo and derivatives markets impact underlying bond markets?

At a time when the issue of preserving forests to combat global warming is central to the COP28 debates, President Lula marks a break with his predecessor and calls on world leaders to "take concrete action and respect climate agreements". In a country where agribusiness has destroyed almost 50% of the vegetation cover, one of the main challenges of the new presidential term is to increase the agricultural area without cutting down trees. The date has been set for the COP30 in Belem. At the same time, the country's commitment to fiscal and budgetary reform is expected to put public finances on a sounder footing as it embarks on a major structural macroeconomic turnaround. Everything is in place to attract international investors.

Coming on the heels of 2023, a year that turned out favourable for the financial markets despite a disruptive international environment, 2024 promises to usher in a new era, according to the experts at Ostrum Asset Management (Ostrum AM), an affiliate of Natixis Investment Managers. Investors will thus have to adapt to a new market configuration, one where the lenders have the power, with interest rates set to remain above 2% for a prolonged period. 2024 is shaping up to be a year filled with investment opportunities, served by active management of risks that should in principle be contained but are nevertheless on the rise: duration risks, credit risks and volatility risks, not to mention risks associated with climate change.

Each month we share the conclusions from the monthly strategy investment committee which provides a summary of Ostrum’s views on the economy, strategy and markets. 

Each month we share the conclusions from the monthly strategy investment committee which provides a summary of Ostrum’s views on the economy, strategy and markets. 

An unprecedented situation in global equity markets The rise in global equity markets observed in 2023, through until the summer, was chiefly attributable to expanding valuation multiples in the most speculative sectors. The resulting historic peak in sector concentration is comparable to the periods preceding the bursting of the technologies-media-telecoms (TMT) bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. Consequently, the gap in growth outlook, between the most volatile and the least volatile sectors, is four times higher than the historic average. In the context of an economic slowdown, this historically wide valuation and implied growth spreads, in favour of one single sub-segment of the market, offers some genuine relative alternatives. For investors, opportunities may arise with defensive sectors and value stocks narrowing the gap moving forward.

The fixed income bond market is comprised of different types of debt. Subordinated debt sits at the lower end of the debt stack, just before equity. In case of a default, repayment of subordinated debt will come after the other bond tranches.  This implies that subordinated debt bears a higher risk for investors. Therefore, in return, subordinated debt bonds compensate investors with higher yields. As a result, the asset class offers a compromise in terms of risk and returns, positioning it in the middle of the capital structure, just between equities and senior bond tranches. European banks represent the largest sub-segment of the subordinated debt asset class. This is related to the regulatory framework and its stringent rules in terms of bank capital requirements. Issuing subordinated debt allows banks to increase their capital ratios while at the same time it serves to strengthen their creditworthiness. In 2023, after a turbulent month of March, the subordinated debt market has moved back in the spotlight. The asset class’s valuations have improved, offering an opportunity to gain access to higher yields from subordinated bonds issued generally by investment grade quality signatures. The subordinated debt market is characterised by a strong “euro” bias, resulting from technical factors (European regulatory framework) that favour issuance versus issuing equity to strengthen capital structures. According to Ostrum Asset Management (Ostrum AM), subordinated debt is an instrument which can be used to diversify fixed-income allocations, offering additional yield pick-up. And it can add value to responsible bond allocation as the sustainable subordinated bond market is developing.

Each month we share the conclusions from the monthly strategy investment committee which provides a summary of Ostrum’s views on the economy, strategy and markets. 

The current macroeconomic context is surrounded by some big questions: are we facing a recession? If so, how deep will it be? and how resilient is inflation? For Ostrum AM, it is inflation that will continue to remain the number one “sticky” topic on everyone’s mind. In this environment, what strategies could be considered by investors?  

Each month we share the conclusions from the monthly strategy investment committee which provides a summary of Ostrum’s views on the economy, strategy and markets. 

Focus on the credit market, with Philippe Berthelot, Head of Credit & Money market Since October 2022, we forecasted that 2023 would be an annus mirabilis for fixed income. And as a specialised fixed income asset manager, we were right! So far, 2023 is a marvelous year in general, and for credit in particular.